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Sunday, 19 July 2009

Obiturtary of the high street and other companies - UPDATED

Please follow the link to see updated list of high street and companies that have gone in administration since January 2008

Obituary of the high street and other companies

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Latest figures confirm the Great British Recession

July 2, 2009




LONDON: The recession is now on a par with the very worst year of the Great Depression. Revised figures on Tuesday uncovered the full extent of Britain's economic contraction.

The economy shrank by 4.9 per cent in the year to the first quarter of 2009, the Office for National Statistics said. The fall in gross domestic product was far greater than previously calculated, as the government statistician realised the full scale of the fall in company activity.

"Clearly this is now the worst peacetime recession since the 1930s," said economist Michael Saunders of Citigroup. The worst contraction then was a year of about -5 per cent and "this year will not be hugely different".

The contraction in GDP during the first quarter alone was 2.4 per cent - the previous estimate was 1.9 per cent. This was the biggest one-quarter fall in 35 years.

read full article at  The Sydney morning herald

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Ten US banks fail recession test

May 8 2009

US banks would need a total of £50 billion in additional funds to survive if the recession deepens, the results of government "stress tests" showed.

An assessment of the robustness of the sector found that 10 of the 19 largest banks would need to find extra capital to see them through the bad times.

Bank of America faces the largest potential shortfall of £23 billion.

It joined a list of institutions that also includes Citigroup and Wells Fargo.

The stress tests were designed to gauge whether America's 19 largest banks have enough capital to see them through a deepening of the recession.

After Bank of America, Wells Fargo was found to have the second largest shortfall of £9.1 billion, followed by GMAC with a potential £7.6 billion black hole.

Citigroup is being asked to raise an additional £3.3 billion to make it secure. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase and American Express were among the nine banks deemed not to need to raise additional funds.

The stress tests were designed to help regulators assess the ongoing financial stability of US banks.

They look at two models of the economy going forward - one in which unemployment reaches 8.8% next year and house prices drop a further 14%. In the second scenario, joblessness rises to 10.3% and property slips another 22%.

Banks facing a shortfall under the model will have to come up with a plan to raise additional capital by mid June.

 If they cannot do so independently, they may have to turn to the government's £466 billion financial bailout fund.

sourced from Runcorn and Widnes Weekly News

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Saturday, 18 July 2009

Indicators of economic depression ending-- Google searches vs. job losses

read the full article at examiner.com


Larry Summers, Obama's top economic advisor has summed up the state of the economy today in what Forbes online is calling "promising", but somewhat "obscure" signs of recovery.



 

Unemployment rate with and without stimulus package
The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan


  • "Earlier this year traders were betting there was a one-in-six chance that the Dow would fall below 5,000, he said. Now they say it's one-in-a-hundred.

  • The chances that corporate bonds will default has fallen by a third.

  • And Google searches for 'economic depression,' which surged to quadruple their normal levels, have since returned to normal. (A growing number of economists do believe that the recession has ended or will end in coming months.)"


read the full article at  examiner.com

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Theatre and the recession

Hi

I went to the theatre this week to the premier of ENRON, a theatrical production based on the actions and collapse of the giant sized company ENRON.

As I though some of your might find this quite interesting i have created a new page entitled ENRON. As I live in Britain the whole Enron thing back in 2001 didn't really mean much, but know we are in the economical problems that we are looking back at began is interesting.

please follow this link ENRON

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UK economy shrinking at fastest rate in more than 50 years

Downward revisions to official statistics show output fell 2.4% in the first three months of the year and the recession started three months earlier than thought

The recession facing Britain is even deeper than had been thought and started more than a year ago, it was revealed today.



National income fell in the first quarter of this year by 2.4%, the biggest drop since 1958, as the Office for National Statistics revised its initial estimate of 1.9%.

The figures are much worse than expected. Extended to the whole year, the drop in output in the January to March period is now equal to 4.9% – the worst since records began in 1948.

"We hope the recovery comes as soon as possible but sadly we now know this recession has been longer and deeper than we had thought," said shadow chancellor George Osborne.

"This also means that in the future unemployment will be higher and Labour's debt crisis will be even worse."

Although GDP fell 2.4% in the third quarter of 1979 and first quarter of 1974, statisticians said these were rounded from 2.36% or 2.37%. The figure for this year was exactly 2.4%.

The revision is one of the biggest ever made by the ONS and it said the reasons were changes to its estimate of the construction and services sectors.

The ONS also revised down its figure for the second quarter of last year to -0.1% from zero, meaning the recession started earlier than previously thought. And the fourth quarter of 2008 figure was revised down to a fall of 1.8%.

"The recession, which now begins in the second quarter of 2008 rather than the third, is now thought to be quite a bit deeper than previously thought, and is looking ominously like the early 1980s vintage," said Danny Gabay of Fathom Consulting.

Critics of the Bank of England who called for big interest rate cuts in the first half of last year, will feel justified by the data, since the Bank's monetary policy committee argued into last autumn that there was little likelihood of a recession occurring and delayed rate cuts until October. In fact, the economy had entered one last spring.

Separately, the Trades Union Congress said that while there were signs of "green shoots" in the economy, this was more to do with an easing of the pace of the fall in output rather than that a big recovery was under way.

"This recession is already worse than the 1990s one and is likely to be worse than that of the 1980s," said Richard Excel, TUC labour market expert. "It has been very severe and we are probably only half way through. It will be quite some time until employment and growth return to pre-recession levels."

Paul Gregg, labour market expert from Bristol University, noted that unemployment had started rising earlier in this recession than in previous ones and was "encouraged" that monthly rises in the claimant count appeared to be slowing down.

sourced from The Guardian

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Hi de hi, good old fashioned British holidays

At the seaside, recession can mean revival


 It is a pleasant, sunny, yet breezy day in Morecambe and the glass-fronted restaurant at the Midland hotel offers uninterrupted views across the bay to the mountains of the Lake District.


 

This once neglected art deco gem has been transformed into a boutique hotel that is helping to drive the regeneration of the Lancashire seaside resort.

British seaside towns are enjoying a renaissance not seen for decades as the credit crunch bites and staycations become appealing. Gerberas are placed in vases and the cafe has comfortable red leather bucket seats. Nostalgic 1930s music is playing in the background to add to the atmosphere.

The hotel has been re-opened for more than a year and resembles a liner in its structure, stairs and clean lines. Matt Whitehead, the manager, drives to work each day along the seafront and feels lucky. He refers to his hotel as "she".

He said: "The first time I came to Morecambe it was a cold, windy day. It was like a ghost town. The hotel was boarded up. Now you see people walking on the promenade and our database shows people are coming from all over the UK.

"More people are coming to Morecambe for a holiday. "Whatever the reason – the Euro or the fact we are here – it has to be a good thing."

sourced from The Guardian

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